Quantifying restoration time of power and telecommunication lifelines after earthquakes using Bayesian belief network model

Natural and human-made disasters can disrupt infrastructures even if they are designed to be hazard resistant. While the occurrence of hazards only predicted some extent, their impact managed by increasing emergency response reducing vulnerability infrastructure. In context risk management, ability infrastructure withstand damage re-establish initial condition has recently gained prominence. Several resilience strategies have been investigated numerous scholars reduce disaster evaluate recovery time following disastrous events. A key parameter quantify seismic is Downtime (DT). Generally, DT assessment challenging due parameters involved in process. Such highly uncertain therefore cannot treated a deterministic manner. This paper proposes Bayesian Network (BN) probabilistic approach selected types earthquakes. To demonstrate applicability methodology, three scenarios performed. Results show that methodology capable providing good estimates despite uncertainty parameters. The used effectively support decision-makers managing minimizing impacts earthquakes immediate post-event applications as well promptly recover damaged